General elections in Ghana are set to occur on December 7, where voters will choose both the president and members of parliament. Approximately 18.8 million Ghanaians are registered to take part in the electoral process.
The political scene in Ghana is predominantly shaped by two major parties: the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the National Democratic Congress (NDC). This dichotomy fosters a highly competitive atmosphere. Current Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia and former President John Mahama are the frontrunners in the latest polls.
Bawumia has spent eight years serving as Vice President under Nana Akufo-Addo, who is ineligible to run again due to term limits. Mahama previously held the presidency for four-and-a-half years starting in 2012, before losing to the NPP in the 2016 elections.
Other significant candidates include Nana Kwame Bediako, a prominent businessman, and Alan Kyerematen, the former Minister of Trade and Industry, who left the NPP last year.
Renowned as a shining example of democracy in Africa, Ghana holds a strong track record for its electoral practices, characterized by regular and peaceful transitions of power since the revival of multiparty democracy in 1992. Based on historical trends, the election results are expected to be announced by December 10.
Alex Vines, director of the Africa programme at Chatham House, suggests that the election result remains unpredictable.
“This election is anticipated to be fiercely contested. Earlier this year, I was confident that the NDC would have a straightforward win. Now, I’m uncertain; there’s a possibility of a presidential runoff, and while the NDC might perform well in parliament, the NPP could still win the presidency. Ultimately, the outcome will only be clear once Ghanaians have cast their votes.”
Economy central to contest
The forthcoming elections in Ghana have brought numerous significant issues to the forefront, particularly economic management, as voters express growing worries about inflation, high unemployment rates, rising living costs, frequent power outages, and national debt.
Naidoo states that the interplay of longstanding issues, such as reckless borrowing and public spending that led to Ghana’s default in 2022, together with external global challenges, have led to financing difficulties, diminishing international reserves, skyrocketing inflation, and a weakening cedi. He highlights that the downturn in commodity prices impacting the cocoa and oil industries, compounded by hyperinflation at the close of 2022, has left “people really fatigued.”
In May 2023, Ghana secured a 36-month extended credit facility from the IMF, totaling around $3 billion, which is set to extend until 2026. The fund recently approved the third review of the programme, allowing for an immediate disbursement of roughly $360 million.
As the programme goes through regular evaluations and could evolve based on the election results, both political parties will likely need to function within its financial constraints.
Within these parameters, the parties are striving to carve out distinct approaches. Jervin Naidoo, a political analyst at Oxford Economics Africa, notes that Mahama’s NDC aims to increase government expenditure in social sectors. Conversely, Bawumia’s NPP intends to prioritize economic stability by reducing inflation and luring private sector investment.
“In terms of requests and immediate economic impact, there won’t be major changes given that Ghana’s fiscal policies are dictated by the IMF programme,” explains Naidoo.
Bright Simons, a Ghanaian social entrepreneur, author, and commentator, tells African Business that voters’ focus on critical issues discourages parties from making grand promises for sweeping reforms.
A tough road ahead
The primary challenge remains inflation. Consumer prices surged over the last three months, climbing 23% year-on-year in November, compared to 22.1% in October, largely driven by increasing costs of essential food items.
Moreover, the strength of the cedi poses a significant challenge. The currency has sharply devalued against the US dollar, largely due to the economic pressures resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic, and faced further declines in 2022 following Ghana’s default on a substantial portion of its external debt.
Since early 2020, the US dollar has appreciated by nearly 180% against the Ghanaian cedi, which now trades at approximately 15 to the dollar, rising from 11 in May 2023.
Confronting these challenges—while engaging with the IMF to implement economic reforms and secure investments—will present a considerable undertaking for the next administration, according to Vines.
“The new administration will be tasked with the challenging endeavor of reforming the Ghanaian economy and attracting new investments for sustainable growth. Politicians often overcommit while failing to recognize the tough choices lying ahead; this is a common feature of democratic elections. Their promises require thorough scrutiny.”
