Saudi Arabia has officially been selected as the host for the 2034 World Cup, marking the return of this prestigious event to the Gulf region for the second time in just a decade—a choice that has already ignited significant debate.
For Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), this could signal a major victory in his plan to use sports as a tool for attracting tourists, boosting global influence, and reshaping the nation’s image.
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“This is a pivotal moment for MBS and the Saudi state. It is arguably the pinnacle of their sports strategy thus far,” remarked Stanis Elsborg, director of Play the Game, a Denmark-based organization focused on ethical standards in sports. “However, for MBS, hosting a tournament is merely one aspect of a broader vision.”
Saudi Arabia is in the eighth year of a multi-trillion dollar initiative aimed at decreasing its economy’s reliance on oil revenue. This agenda includes developing various new industries, modernizing society, and welcoming tourists.
The kingdom has invested heavily in sports to advance these objectives, both within the country and on the international stage, anticipating that events like the World Cup will energize its youthful population.
Nevertheless, the Saudi bid to host the 2034 World Cup has been met with controversy since its inception.
‘Darker side’
Advocacy groups, including Amnesty International, have expressed concerns about the exploitation of labor, while several U.S. senators have urged that the bid be rejected due to Saudi Arabia’s severe human rights violations.
U.S. intelligence agencies have linked the 2018 killing of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi to MBS, who had shifted from being a close ally to a critic within the royal circle.
According to Elsborg, the kingdom intends for the World Cup to serve as a distraction from these disturbing issues.
“Let us not ignore the grim realities: this is not solely about a passion for the sport,” he articulated. “It’s about using sports to divert attention from their abhorrent human rights practices and to gain global legitimacy.”
The Saudi government did not respond to requests for comment.
‘Sportswashing’
Qatar, which held the first World Cup in the Middle East in 2022, faced similar accusations of sportswashing to shift focus from its human rights issues. Despite this, the event was viewed as a sporting success, elevating the small nation’s standing on the global stage.
Saudi Arabia seeks even greater benefits.
MBS has cultivated a relationship with FIFA President Gianni Infantino, who has long supported the nation as a potential World Cup host. Furthermore, Saudi oil giant Aramco has emerged as a major sponsor of FIFA events.
Ultimately, Saudi Arabia was the only contender for the 2034 World Cup after Australia withdrew, making its selection virtually assured before FIFA’s final announcement on Wednesday.
World Cup stadiums
The precise timing for the 2034 World Cup is still pending confirmation, according to the Saudi sports minister. Matches are expected to occur in 15 stadiums across five Saudi cities, including Riyadh and Jeddah, with eleven of those being entirely new constructions.
The financial and construction demands associated with this plan could intensify pressure on an economy that has been facing years of budget deficits, in part due to ongoing investments.
Saudi Arabia expects a fiscal deficit of around 2.8% of GDP this year, which is anticipated to continue until 2027.
The kingdom has not provided a timeline for when it expects to achieve a surplus and has indicated that running deficits is an essential compromise for investing in growth outside the oil sector.
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“A planned deficit of 2% to 3% in a stable region is advantageous for investing in critical economic sectors,” stated Faisal Al-Ibrahim, the minister of economy and planning, last month.
The kingdom has been increasingly reliant on sovereign debt issuance to cover the shortfall and plans to maintain borrowing in 2025. According to Moody’s, this activity may raise Saudi Arabia’s debt-to-GDP ratio to 35% by 2030, although this remains significantly lower than that of many other nations.
“They have sufficient capacity to finance it,” noted Justin Alexander, director of Khalij Economics and an analyst for GlobalSource Partners. “While they may occasionally need to increase borrowing or limit spending in other areas to manage this, it is definitely a priority.”
Construction concerns
World Cup-related construction will add to the $1.3 trillion in real estate and infrastructure projects that have been initiated throughout the nation since 2016.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia will be gearing up for two major sports championships within the next five years and preparing for the World Expo in 2030.
Migrant laborers, who are vital to Saudi Arabia’s construction surge, currently face widespread labor abuses, leading Human Rights Watch to condemn that the 2034 event will likely be fraught with rights violations.
The rush to build adequate new stadiums in Qatar before the 2022 event led to safety shortcuts and the tragic deaths of hundreds of migrant workers, as reported by media reports and stated by government officials. Many of the issues that plagued the selection of the small but wealthy nation are expected to resurface in Saudi Arabia.
The Qatar World Cup faced criticism from several club owners who argued that shifting to winter events disrupted domestic leagues. The host country’s stance on homosexuality also received scrutiny, with human rights and LGBT advocates warning that the World Cup may not be welcoming to all sports fans. Furthermore, alcohol consumption was banned in stadiums.
Trophy moment
The tournament’s finale saw Argentina triumph over France in a penalty shootout, a match regarded by analysts as one of the most memorable World Cup finals in history, cementing Lionel Messi’s legacy as the top clutch player of his generation.
The image of Messi proudly lifting the Jules Rimet trophy, donned in a traditional black Arab bisht cloak bestowed by Qatar’s ruler Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani moments earlier, went viral, enhancing the nation’s image and influence.
After the World Cup, Qatar experienced a 58% year-on-year surge in tourism numbers in 2023, with projections to reach a record in 2024.
Prince Mohammed of Saudi Arabia may be hoping for a similar result.
The kingdom targets welcoming 150 million tourists annually by 2030, with 70 million coming from abroad. Furthermore, the government has indicated plans to invest nearly $1 trillion in the tourism sector over the next decade to elevate its status as one of the most visited locations worldwide.
“Winning this bid sends a strong message: Saudi Arabia is not only ready to claim its place on the global stage but is also dedicated to reshaping the region’s tourism narrative,” articulated Anita Mendiratta, special advisor to the UN Tourism secretary-general.
Hosting the World Cup could potentially welcome millions of new visitors and open new revenue avenues, aiding the broader diversification goals of the nation.
© 2024 Bloomberg L.P.
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