The expansion of Chinese cement manufacturing in Africa represents a clear trend. In 2023, we documented nine new cement projects financed by Chinese investments in Africa, with an additional five expected to launch in 2024 to date.
The divergence in economic conditions between China and Africa is driving this surge in cement investments. In China, the real estate market faces challenges, showing cement consumption at 60 million tonnes annually, against a production capacity of 130 million tonnes. This surplus increases the bankruptcy risks for producers who do not have strong export markets. Stringent environmental regulations in China further impede local cement production, resulting in companies relocating operations overseas.
As a result, Chinese companies are actively seeking promising opportunities abroad, and Africa’s rising infrastructure needs align perfectly with this strategy.
While cement prices in China fell to $41/ton in 2023, prices in key markets like Ethiopia and DRC jumped to $111/ton.
Furthermore, based on certain forecasts, Africa’s cement market is projected to expand from approximately $35 billion in 2024 to around $42 billion by 2030, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.7%. Meanwhile, China’s share of global cement production is expected to decrease from over 50% in the early 2020s to about 35% by 2030.
This rising demand for cement is propelled by a continuous construction surge across the continent, driven by rapid urbanization, population growth, and existing infrastructure shortages. Countries such as Ethiopia, Mozambique, and Rwanda are experiencing significant demand for cement to support road, bridge, and housing construction. These initiatives correspond with broader objectives highlighted in the African Union’s Agenda 2063, which underscores industrialization and extensive cross-border infrastructure projects.
Key Chinese Players
West China Cement Limited distinguishes itself as a major player, operating in Ethiopia, Mozambique, the DRC, and Rwanda. In Ethiopia, WCC’s $600 million Lemi National Cement Factory, the nation’s largest, produces 15,000 tonnes of cement daily, fulfilling half of the national demand. Developed in collaboration with East African Holding within a Building Materials Industrial Park, it began production in September 2024 and exemplifies the scale of substantial Chinese investments in the sector.
In Rwanda, the Anjia Cement Factory, a $50 million investment from West International Holdings, highlights the feasibility of smaller-scale projects in less populated markets. This facility supports Rwanda’s goal of achieving cement production self-sufficiency while creating over 1,000 local jobs. Sinoma International Engineering and Huaxin Cement are also expanding their footprints across the continent, investing in Tanzania, Zambia, South Africa, and Mozambique.
These companies benefit from strong policy backing associated with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and related FOCAC funding. For instance, South Africa’s Mamba Cement plant, established in 2014, is jointly owned by Jidong Development Group (60%) and the China-Africa Development Fund (CAD Fund) (40%), primarily serving the local market. Key provinces in China, housing cement operators keen on overseas expansion, include Shaanxi, Xinjiang, and Guizhou. In March 2024, WCC’s Chairman, Zhang Jimin, remarked that the company’s African ventures were the “major contributors to profits for the overall business last year.”
Sustainability and Scale Challenges
While the influx of Chinese cement operations presents opportunities, it also brings several challenges. Environmental sustainability is a significant concern, and an overreliance on Chinese investments for cement may threaten the development and stability of Africa’s domestic industries as they navigate their economic difficulties. Addressing these challenges will require strategic policy planning and coordination.
Despite Africa’s notable strides as a global cement producer, it still significantly lags behind China in terms of production scale. For example, Dangote Cement, the largest cement producer in Africa, has an annual production capacity of 52 million tonnes across the continent. In stark contrast, China’s largest cement producer, China National Building Material Co. Ltd. (CNBM), boasts a total capacity exceeding 530 million tonnes per year—over ten times more.
With nearly four times the land area of China yet only 4% of the world’s existing infrastructure, there exists a compelling business case for African cement producers in regional hubs like Nigeria to match or exceed the scale of operators in China.
The reality is that Africa’s substantial infrastructure needs and ambitions are not adequately backed by accessible, low-cost financing, thus stifling the cement market. As a result, the commercial opportunities that progress smoothly mainly involve real estate developments targeting upper and middle-class consumers.
While data shows that Chinese cement manufacturers are more aware of the potential within Africa compared to many other foreign investors—who often lack insight into rapid urbanization and infrastructure development—these engagements remain limited and do not reach their full potential, particularly regarding development.
Seizing the Opportunity
So, what steps can be taken to harness this opportunity?
Two critical actions are necessary: one oriented towards achieving immediate results and the other focused on medium-term impacts.
First, it is clear that Chinese cement producers will continue to explore both greenfield and brownfield investment opportunities throughout Africa. African governments should actively promote their countries—especially special economic zones—as attractive investment destinations to leading cement firms in China. To fully benefit from these investments, Chinese companies need to emphasize sustainable production practices to mitigate reputational risks and align with China’s commitment to a more sustainable Africa-China partnership. Facilities employing Chinese technology have already brought sustainability enhancements in China’s domestic cement production, leading to emission reductions of over 50% in some instances.
Second, collaboration between African governments and both African and Chinese financial institutions is vital to unlock the rising infrastructure demand across Africa—especially in large-scale cross-border initiatives. On the African front, institutions like AfDB, Afreximbank, AFC, and Shelter Afrique are leading efforts in financing cement plants or infrastructure projects that will boost cement demand. On the Chinese front, entities such as China Eximbank, CADFUND, CAFIC, Silk Road Fund, CDB, alongside China-based multilateral organizations like NDB and AIIB, play crucial roles. The latter, in particular, has the potential to offer innovative financing solutions for regional infrastructure development, further supporting initiatives like the AfCFTA and the AU’s Agenda 2063.
Ultimately, the data illustrates a truth often observed in Africa-China relations: the mutually beneficial economic dynamics presented by expanding African markets for Chinese firms. However, it’s vital to ensure that this balance of benefits skews towards Africa, providing opportunities for millions of Africans to break free from poverty through large-scale infrastructure investments. Our perspective on cement is that realizing this goal will require intentional strategies and innovation. Nevertheless, it is absolutely attainable—China itself demonstrates this potential.
