Impact of Ship Cancellations and Smelter Operations as Mozambique Awaits Election Outcome -

Since late October, trade disruptions and unrest in Mozambique following the elections have significantly impacted a major aluminum smelter, with the southeast African nation bracing for further disturbances next week.

The Constitutional Council is anticipated to ratify the disputed election results by December 23, as opposition leader Venâncio Mondlane has called for continued demonstrations depending on the outcome. The violent protests have already resulted in the postponement of 24 vessels, with six choosing not to enter the main port in Maputo, according to terminal operator Grindrod’s report on Thursday.

South32, which operates the largest aluminum smelter in the region located near the port, announced it has curtailed electricity supply to its production facilities “to conserve raw materials and ensure operational stability.”

At least 130 deaths have been reported amid the protests, according to Decide Platform, a local monitoring group that attributes the violence to law enforcement actions. This situation has resulted in one of the most severe political crises the country has experienced in years, affecting the economy and unsettling investors.

Mozambique’s $900 million eurobond has fallen for the ninth consecutive day, now trading at below 81 cents on the dollar — its longest losing streak since July 2022. Furthermore, the local division of Standard Bank Group has adjusted its growth forecast for 2024 down to 2.5%, a decrease from 5.4% last year.

This week, the intensity of the protests has lessened after Mondlane urged a cessation of demonstrations following a tropical cyclone that impacted Mozambique’s northern coast on Sunday. The storm has reportedly caused at least 73 fatalities, as per state television reports.

Nonetheless, Mondlane warned in a livestream on Monday that the Constitutional Council’s ruling will determine whether “the country moves towards peace or plunges into disorder and chaos,” as he has taken refuge in an undisclosed location.

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