Only 20 Countries Are Responsible for the Rise in Global Tourism Emissions -

The rising emissions from worldwide tourism can be traced back to only 20 countries, and existing efforts to tackle this challenge are falling short.

This is the primary takeaway from our recent study, published in Nature Communications, which presents the most comprehensive analysis of tourism emissions to date.

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The research compiles various datasets, incorporating information provided by 175 governments over an 11-year period (2009-2020). It utilizes the UN-approved framework for assessing sustainable tourism, as well as tourism expenditure and emissions intensity data from national accounts.

The findings reveal significant obstacles looming ahead given the larger context. The UN Environment Programme highlights that a 42% cut in global emissions is necessary by 2030 (and 57% by 2035). Not achieving this target threatens the Paris Agreement aim of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees.

Nonetheless, emissions from global tourism are escalating at a rate that is twice that of the global economy.

Our research indicates that emissions increased by 40% from 2009 to 2019, rising from 3.7 gigatonnes (7.3% of global emissions) in 2009 to 5.2 gigatonnes (8.8% of global emissions) by 2019.

Although tourism emissions decreased sharply during 2020-2021 due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the rebound to pre-pandemic levels has been rapid.

Rapid expansion without technological advancements

Tourism-related emissions grew at an annual rate of 3.5% from 2009 to 2019, significantly surpassing the overall economic growth rate of 1.5% per year in that same period. If this trend continues, global tourism emissions could potentially double in the next 20 years.

The carbon intensity associated with tourist spending is 30% higher than the global average and four times greater than that of the service sector.

The driving force behind the increasing emissions is the growing demand for tourism. The expanding carbon footprint is largely due to aviation (21%), the use of petrol and diesel vehicles (17%), and utility services such as electricity (16%).

Progress in efficiency improvements through technology has been outpaced by this escalating demand.

Aviation accounts for half of the direct tourism emissions, indicating its critical role as the Achilles’ heel of global tourism emissions. Despite years of commitments, the global aviation sector has struggled to decarbonize through new technologies.

20 countries dominate emissions

Our research reveals significant differences in emissions growth among countries. The United States, China, and India accounted for 60% of the increase in tourism emissions between 2009 and 2019. By 2019, these three nations contributed 39% of the total global tourism emissions.

An astonishing 75% of global tourism emissions are produced by just 20 countries, while the other 155 countries account for the remaining 25%. Notably, there is now a hundred-fold disparity in per-capita tourism footprints between the highest and lowest traveling nations.

Among the top 20 emitters, the US (both as a travel destination and through its citizens’ travels) had the highest tourism carbon footprint in 2019, nearly totaling 1 gigatonne.

This represented 19% of the total global tourism carbon footprint, increasing at an annual rate of 3.2%.

In 2019, the US tourism carbon footprint was equivalent to 3 tonnes per resident, placing it 12th globally among countries with the highest per-capita tourism emissions.

As a travel destination, the United Kingdom ranked 7th worldwide, contributing 128 megatonnes (2.5% of the total). UK residents generated 2.8 tonnes of emissions per person in 2019, ranking 15th globally.

Australia held the 14th position globally with a tourism carbon footprint of 82 megatonnes and a per-capita footprint of 3.4 tonnes, ranking 8th globally. This underscores the considerable emissions associated with long-distance air travel for international trips.

In 2019, New Zealand’s per-capita tourism carbon footprint was 3.1 tonnes per resident (10th globally), with long-haul international travel posing a significant challenge, similar to Australia.

Tourism was discussed for the first time at this year’s COP29 conference.
Image: Getty Images

Four strategies for tourism decarbonization

This year’s UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP29) marked the first time tourism featured. The UN Tourism acknowledged our study and highlighted that tourism now accounts for 8.8% of total global emissions.

It emphasized that COP29 “represents a critical moment where ambitions match actions, turning vision into commitment towards a positive shift for our planet’s future.”

Nevertheless, our research suggests that the combination of increasing tourism demand and insufficient technological efficiency improvements poses significant hurdles for reducing tourism-related carbon emissions.

Despite these challenges, we have identified four strategies to stabilize and reduce global tourism emissions:

Evaluate tourism carbon emissions to pinpoint crucial areas. Our study sheds light on the tourism subsectors significantly contributing to emissions growth, such as aviation, energy supply, and vehicle use. These sectors should aim for a 10% annual emissions reduction by 2050.
Limit excessive tourism development and establish sustainable growth limits. National strategies for tourism decarbonization must define and enforce sustainable growth objectives, particularly in the 20 highest-emitting tourism destinations.
Encourage domestic and short-distance travel while discouraging long-haul trips. Taking active steps to manage air travel demand is the most obvious initial action, potentially involving regulation of long-haul travel demand.
Address disparities among nations by considering the social costs related to carbon emissions. Regulating the ongoing, unchecked growth in long-haul air travel aligns with promoting a more equitable tourism model to address these disparities.

The primary objective of our research is to provide clearer insights into tourism’s influence on global emissions for policymakers and industry leaders. The next step is to develop evidence-based policies and regulations aimed at achieving rapid decarbonization in the tourism sector.

The authors wish to express their appreciation to Stefan Gössling, Manfred Lenzen, and Futu Faturay for their contributions to the research team for this project, which culminated in the Nature Communications paper upon which this article is based.

James Higham is a professor of tourism at Griffith University and Ya-Yen Sun is an associate professor at the School of Business at The University of Queensland.

This article has been republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article here.