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JEREMY MAGGS: We are currently seeing an outbreak of a new respiratory virus in China that is reminiscent of the early stages of Covid-19, garnering considerable global attention. The South African government has announced that it is monitoring the situation closely. But what does this mean for us back home?
I’m now in conversation with Professor Cheryl Cohen, the head of the Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis at the National Institute for Communicable Diseases. Professor, it’s a pleasure to have you here. What do we currently know about the situation in China?
CHERYL COHEN: Good afternoon, Jeremy. Thank you for inviting me. We are currently aware of an increase in respiratory illnesses in China, but it may be somewhat overstated to call it an outbreak. As you pointed out, media coverage has been extensive. China is experiencing winter in the Northern Hemisphere, which typically sees a rise in respiratory diseases, and that is what we are currently observing.
While the rise in respiratory illnesses in China is noted, the World Health Organization states that this pattern is in line with what is generally expected during a typical winter season.
JEREMY MAGGS: It’s easy to make assumptions, so is there any evidence right now that this virus could potentially evolve into a global threat like Covid-19?
CHERYL COHEN: Yes, the global concern largely stems from the historical emergence of Covid in China. The virus of most interest is the human metapneumovirus (HMPV), but several other common winter viruses like rhinovirus and influenza are also circulating.
This virus is not a new pathogen; it has been well-known for years as one of the viruses responsible for typical cold and flu symptoms during winter.
We have this virus in South Africa, and it circulates year-round, contributing to respiratory illnesses.
Currently, we do not consider it to be an exceptional threat. It is already present here, and since it’s summer, we don’t expect to see high levels of the virus affecting the population, who have developed immunity to it.
JEREMY MAGGS: As it stands, there’s no indication that this virus can be spread internationally, though South Africans may be concerned about travelers from impacted regions.
CHERYL COHEN: In terms of international travel, it’s vital to recognize that respiratory viruses can indeed spread globally. For example, influenza often moves from the Northern Hemisphere during the winter months. However, human metapneumovirus does not mutate rapidly, and it is already present in our country. Therefore, while isolated cases could arise, it’s not a virus of significant concern for importation, as there haven’t been any unusual signals regarding it. The current circulation aligns with seasonal patterns.
JEREMY MAGGS: The government is appropriately monitoring the situation. Are there specific measures in place to address any potential developments, or should new ones be considered?
CHERYL COHEN: The government, in collaboration with the National Institute for Communicable Diseases, is consistently monitoring any global signals regarding emerging threats, whether viral or otherwise. We are attentively observing the developments occurring in China.
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South Africa has a pandemic preparedness plan that has been developed and refined following the last pandemic to ensure we have robust responses ready.
However, the current assessment of risk stemming from China is low, so no additional measures are considered necessary at this time.
JEREMY MAGGS: Regarding the pandemic preparedness plan, do you think we are generally better prepared now to handle potential outbreaks than we were in the past?
CHERYL COHEN: Absolutely. We have gained substantial insights from the challenges posed by Sars-CoV-2 (the coronavirus). We have learned which strategies work effectively and which do not. The South African government has invested greatly in enhancing our preparedness, collaborating with international organizations like the World Health Organization to revise our plans and conduct simulations to test these improvements.
Thus, I believe we are indeed better prepared than before.
JEREMY MAGGS: In light of this, is there a heightened level of global collaboration in understanding and addressing outbreaks? Is there more cohesive work happening worldwide?
CHERYL COHEN: Certainly, there have been significant initiatives aimed at improving global collaboration at various levels. A key component involves sharing viruses and data as soon as it becomes available. For example, the information we have on the increase in respiratory viruses in China comes from weekly reports published by the China CDC.
Following the pandemic, China established a systematic approach for monitoring respiratory diseases, producing reports that help assess the current situation, including levels consistent with previous years.
This serves as an excellent example of transparent communication, which has been vital for global risk assessment since the pandemic.
JEREMY MAGGS: To wrap up this conversation, you’re not particularly concerned about the current situation.
CHERYL COHEN: At this moment, we assess the risk as low, and there are no reasons for concern. We will continue to monitor developments. If a novel virus were to arise or disease levels to significantly increase, we would reassess our position. But for now, there is no cause for alarm.
JEREMY MAGGS: Thank you very much, Professor. Cheryl Cohen, head of the Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis at the National Institute for Communicable Diseases.
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