Murray Auchincloss, the Chief Executive Officer of BP Plc, indicated that the growth of oil supply from non-OPEC producers is likely to plateau in early 2026, even as demand remains robust.
“We expect non-OPEC supply to stabilize after February or March of next year,” he stated during an interview with Bloomberg Television on Tuesday following the company’s earnings report. “Supply will stay fairly steady for the next 12-18 months thereafter.”
ADVERTISEMENT
CONTINUE READING BELOW
This stabilization could bolster crude prices, which are now approximately $69 a barrel in London after experiencing an 8% drop this year. Numerous analysts, including those from the International Energy Agency, anticipate a global supply surplus developing in the upcoming months and extending into 2026.
This scenario may also advantage the OPEC+ alliance, led by Saudi Arabia, which has notably increased production to regain market share lost to rivals. The group finalized plans to complete the revival of an initial supply tranche last weekend and is contemplating additional increases.
In recent years, non-OPEC supply has been chiefly driven by nations such as Guyana and the US, where BP expects growth in oil and natural gas production, as noted by Auchincloss.
Brazil, where BP recently made its largest discovery in 25 years, has also added to production outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Auchincloss refrained from providing specific details about that project, disclosed on Monday, mentioning that they are currently collaborating with regulators and will be “advancing it promptly.”
Auchincloss’s perspective on non-OPEC supply appears slightly more cautious in the long term compared to the IEA, which serves as an energy advisor to leading economies in Paris. The agency forecasts that while growth in non-OPEC+ supply will notably slow next year, it will still increase by 940,000 barrels a day and continue to expand through the decade.
The BP chief indicated that demand remains “fairly strong,” with growth expected this year and next that aligns with the trends observed over the past twenty years. He added that petrochemicals are set to drive consumption growth next year.
“Demand growth remains solid for this product,” he expressed.
ADVERTISEMENT:
CONTINUE READING BELOW
This summer has revealed tightness in the refined fuels market, particularly diesel, within the Atlantic Basin. While refining capacity has been augmented at Dangote in Nigeria and Dos Bocas in Mexico, these increases have been offset by closures elsewhere, according to BP’s insights.
“Although oil production is rising, refinery supply has plateaued,” Auchincloss explained in a phone interview. “No major new additions are anticipated to come online, so we will need to augment storage as we move through the summer.”
Concerning the short-term outlook for oil prices, Auchincloss mentioned uncertainty attributed to market influences from sanctions on Russia and Iran, alongside Chinese stockpiling, in addition to fundamental factors.
© 2025 Bloomberg
Stay connected with Moneyweb’s comprehensive finance and business news on WhatsApp here.
