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SIMON BROWN: I’m here with Christie Viljoen, Senior Economist at PwC South Africa. Thank you for joining us, Christie. A recent Megatrends Report from PwC unveils several fascinating insights. A key takeaway is your exploration of the unprecedented levels of global uncertainty, which we can partly attribute to the U.S. administration’s tariff policies.
Yet, this concern extends well beyond just tariffs. Other factors, such as AI and climate change, also amplify this uncertainty.
CHRISTIE VILJOEN: Absolutely. Presently, political events—especially those tied to the U.S.—dominate headlines, particularly regarding tariffs impacting South Africa directly. However, these tariffs are merely a fraction of a larger landscape. These ‘megatrends’ embody the primary forces shaping our society—long-term influences steering change. While some, like political developments and climate change, are frequently discussed, technological innovations are also pivotal.
AI stands as a major influence, but we cannot overlook demographic changes, social stability, and, in South Africa’s context, the prevailing instability. These factors together create an environment where both current and future landscapes become increasingly unpredictable.
SIMON BROWN: Indeed. This unpredictability is concerning, especially for policymakers and businesses.
However, within this complex setting lies opportunity. Though it may sound clichéd, the capacity to adapt and leverage uncertainty can lead to enhanced outcomes.
CHRISTIE VILJOEN: That’s correct. Consider the most successful investors and entrepreneurs—they often initiate with innovative or adapted concepts in response to the market shifts and disruptions accompanying uncertainty.
In the South African context, for instance, U.S. tariffs are putting pressure on our export-dependent businesses. Many are seeking alternative markets and avenues, which is prudent. Nonetheless, it requires a reassessment of how we create export value, identify our target markets, deliver products, and reshape industries to seize these opportunities. As the saying goes: when one door closes, another opens.
SIMON BROWN: You’ve collaborated with your PwC colleagues to simulate various policy responses, estimating an impressive R188 billion boost in exports by 2030. That’s significant, yet also complex. How essential is the role of public-private partnerships in this equation?
CHRISTIE VILJOEN: Our simulation highlights the shifting global landscape, with our primary trading partners adapting their policies in response to changing trade, climate, and technological realities. We must take advantage of these opportunities.
For example, Asian countries investing in green technology have shown a rising demand for platinum and similar metals—products we export. There’s tangible potential in that market.
Your inquiry about collaboration between the public and private sectors is critical. Both sectors must come together. The public sector offers political and technical connections, while the private sector emphasizes production and exports. It requires a collective effort.
Since Covid-19 began, we’ve witnessed enhanced cooperation between the government and private sector, which needs to transition into strategies by 2025 on how South Africa can boost its global goods distribution and create jobs.
SIMON BROWN: You mentioned the hydrogen economy, which enhances the demand for PGMs—where South Africa holds a robust advantage. Some benefits may take time to materialize, while others can emerge swiftly.
CHRISTIE VILJOEN: Exactly, global market trends are crucial. As exporters, we have to be adaptable. Over the last year, trade regulations have evolved rapidly—not just in the U.S., but also in Europe, Turkey, India, and China. Each country is prioritizing its own economic development and growth, which includes trade and investment with others.
This necessitates that South Africans—positioned at the southern edge of the continent, often with distant markets—remain attuned to global developments. Technology, in particular, is advancing rapidly, and we must keep up.
This is a vital moment for us to expand our comprehension of the global market to exploit potential opportunities.
SIMON BROWN: I appreciate that phrase you used—’agile to change.’ This isn’t new for our business leaders. Successful companies embrace change. A prime example is Checkers Sixty60, which continually evolves—this is fundamental to good business practice.
CHRISTIE VILJOEN: That’s correct. In every industry, there are always a few innovators at the forefront, while others may struggle to adapt. This underscores the necessity for change, innovation, and agility. It requires collaboration among business leaders, companies, and stakeholders to seize opportunities, as the risk of falling behind is significant.
In this scenario, other nations and their companies may identify opportunities first and quickly dominate markets, potentially dismissing South African products with a simple, ‘Thanks, but we’re fine for now.’
SIMON BROWN: Absolutely. If we don’t act, be assured others will, and we must lead the way.
Thank you, Christie Viljoen, Senior Economist at PwC South Africa, for your invaluable insights.
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