The probability of the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 has diminished, with Galaxy Digital updating its likelihood assessment to 50%. This shift occurs as Senate Republicans continue to push for a vote when lawmakers reconvene after their break.
Summary
- Galaxy Digital has adjusted its forecast for the CLARITY Act’s passage in 2026 to 50%, amid ongoing debates in the Senate.
- Senator Tim Scott is urging for a Senate vote in July, as legislators work towards reconciling significant policy differences.
- Current discussions address ethics regulations, anti-money laundering protocols, and market oversight of digital assets before the Senate’s return.
Eleanor Terrett reports that congressional staff, White House officials, and cryptocurrency industry representatives are engaging in negotiations behind closed doors while the U.S. Senate is on recess until July 13. Their aim is to bridge gaps between multiple versions of the crypto market structure bill created by the Senate Banking and Agriculture Committees before senators return.
The talks are focusing on various unresolved issues, including ethics standards, anti-money laundering protocols, and the regulatory framework for digital asset markets. Reaching an agreement on these points is considered essential before the bill can proceed to a Senate vote.
July timeline faces procedural challenges
Even if negotiators finalize the bill before lawmakers return, the Senate’s schedule may hinder its advancement.
As reported by Terrett, Senate Majority Leader John Thune has noted that the National Defense Authorization Act will take priority when the Senate reconvenes in mid-July. Therefore, the discussion of the CLARITY Act may be postponed until later in July or possibly the first week of August.
The timing is crucial, as many analysts argue that this legislation requires Senate approval before Congress breaks for the August recess. Missing this legislative window could significantly impede the bill’s progress before the end of the 2026 congressional session.
Moreover, bipartisan support will be vital for the bill’s passage. A minimum of 60 votes in the Senate is needed, where Republicans currently have 53 seats. Complete Republican support is not assured, particularly since Senators Josh Hawley and Rand Paul previously opposed the GENIUS Act; therefore, Democratic backing will also be critical for the CLARITY Act.
Republican support continues despite lower approval chances
While negotiations remain in progress, key Republicans are still advocating for a vote in July.
In a recent post on X, Senator Tim Scott backed Majority Leader John Thune’s proposed timeline for presenting crypto market structure legislation to the Senate. Scott highlighted that this bipartisan initiative aims to create clearer regulatory frameworks for digital assets, improve consumer protections, and stimulate innovation in the U.S. He called on lawmakers to move the legislation forward for the benefit of all Americans.
While Republican leadership is proceeding, market sentiment has become more cautious. Galaxy Digital has downgraded its estimation of the CLARITY Act’s chances of becoming law in 2026 to 50%, highlighting the political and procedural challenges that remain before the legislation can make headway in the Senate.
The next two weeks are expected to be pivotal as negotiators work to resolve lingering policy challenges before senators return to Washington. Whether these talks lead to a compromise could significantly influence if the CLARITY Act reaches the Senate floor in July or falters before Congress takes its summer break.
