The CLARITY Act missed a significant procedural chance as Senate Majority Leader John Thune opted to file cloture on different measures while bipartisan negotiations regarding the crypto bill were still in progress.
Summary
- Thune did not file cloture for the CLARITY Act, reducing its prospects ahead of the upcoming recess.
- The Senate shifted its focus to spending bills, nominations, and legislation related to college sports.
- Disagreements surrounding ethics provisions and stablecoin incentives remain unresolved.
- Kalshi traders estimate the likelihood of passage at 41% before July 1, 2027.
CLARITY Act absent from Senate cloture actions
On Wednesday, Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed cloture to move forward with S. 4668, the Protect College Sports Act of 2026, as detailed by the U.S. Senate Daily Press. He also filed cloture on H.R. 6500, a substitute amendment for the continuing-resolution vehicle, alongside Todd Blanche’s nomination for attorney general.
Nevertheless, no corresponding cloture filing was made for the CLARITY Act, preventing the crypto market structure bill from starting the essential procedural countdown for an initial cloture vote.
A motion for cloture would allow the Senate to limit debate and begin consideration of the legislation. This motion requires support from 60 senators, meaning Republicans will need Democratic votes to move the bill forward.
Crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett pointed out that Thune’s decision to prioritize college sports legislation indicates that bipartisan consensus has not been reached yet.
“Thune has filed cloture on the motion to proceed with the college sports bill,” Terrett reported, suggesting it “signifies that there is still no bipartisan agreement on the Clarity Act.”
While this omission does not completely terminate the crypto bill, it reduces the available time for debate before senators leave for the August recess.
Thune affirms discussions are ongoing
Thune later emphasized that the CLARITY Act has not been put aside, describing the current situation as a matter of timing.
“We’re sequencing it, but there are still things we want to achieve,” Thune noted.
His remarks suggest that Senate leaders are still striving for a solution that can garner support across both parties. He had previously expressed optimism for a vote on market structure legislation, despite the Senate’s busy agenda.
“I believe market structure will be voted on. Whether we can bring it up or not, we’ll have to see,” he told reporters on Aug. 3.
One challenge lies in the ethics constraints surrounding the crypto holdings of elected officials. The discussions also address stablecoin incentives and protections for noncustodial blockchain developers.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren has called for stricter conflict-of-interest regulations that would encompass the president, vice president, members of Congress, senior officials, and their family members. To advance cloture, Republicans will need at least seven Democratic votes if all 53 GOP senators are in support.
Crypto stakeholders evaluate the risks of more delays
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan cautioned that missing the pre-recess opportunity could leave the bill in a “walking dead” state, suggesting it could remain active but experience significant delays and increased procedural challenges in 2026.
Nonetheless, Hougan argued that the digital asset sector is poised to thrive even without immediate congressional action, pointing to potential SEC rulemaking as an alternate pathway while financial institutions deepen their involvement in crypto.
SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce also expressed confidence that efforts on digital asset regulations will continue.
“I’m still optimistic that the bill will be completed,” Peirce stated.
She contended that legislation would clarify jurisdictional boundaries for investors, companies, and regulators. Furthermore, Peirce mentioned that the SEC could still address issues related to crypto custody, fundraising, and tokenized securities, regardless of the bill’s outcome.
Prediction markets suggest a prolonged delay for the CLARITY Act
Participants in prediction markets have become more wary as the Senate’s procedural timeline narrows. Kalshi has set the likelihood of the bill’s enactment before July 1, 2027, at 41%.
The probability increases to 58% for passage before October 1, 2027, and to 65% before January 1, 2028. These estimates indicate that traders are anticipating a lengthier legislative timeline rather than action in 2026.
The CLARITY Act seeks to delineate the roles of the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in supervising U.S. digital asset markets. Without congressional action, regulators will continue to operate under current securities and commodities frameworks, leaving jurisdictional ambiguities unresolved.
The next clear indication of the bill’s future will be a cloture filing, a negotiated bipartisan agreement, or a change in the Senate’s schedule. Until then, its immediate path to a floor vote remains uncertain.
