On August 9, a report from the Wall Street Journal revealed that President Donald Trump has informed senior aides that he might be able to conclude the U.S.-Iran conflict without a nuclear agreement, as long as Tehran fully reopens the Strait of Hormuz.
Summary
- Trump reportedly suggested to aides that he could end the Iran conflict without securing a nuclear deal.
- Iran contends that reopening Hormuz requires U.S. compensation, sanctions relief, unblocking assets, and broader security agreements.
- Negotiations for an Iran-Oman shipping agreement are nearing completion, though Tehran asserts that Hormuz cannot be reopened at this moment.
- On Friday, Brent crude stabilized at $83.55, rising 1.3%, as traders sought clearer details on the Hormuz negotiations.
- Washington announced it would lift its blockade on Iranian ports when commercial shipping can move freely through Hormuz.
This report comes as Iran amplifies its demands for reopening the waterway, tying its conditions to compensation, sanctions relief, and broader security assurances for a lasting agreement.
The White House has not publicly confirmed that Trump has adjusted his stance on nuclear policy. Recent comments from July 28 reiterated that Iran must not acquire a nuclear weapon, stressing that military options remain viable if diplomacy fails. The expressed openness to consider ending the conflict without a nuclear agreement remains a private policy consideration, not a publicly declared shift in U.S. strategy.
Iran’s latest demands complicate the Hormuz exit strategy
The Journal reported that Iran is seeking billions in U.S. compensation, a withdrawal of American forces from the region, and an end to the naval blockade. Additionally, Reuters stated that Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi is demanding restitution for U.S. attacks, while Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr, secretary of Iran’s top security committee, has called for sanctions relief, access to frozen assets, and the cessation of U.S. military pressure on Iran and its allies.
Tehran has disconnected its discussions with Oman from a broader agreement with Washington. Araqchi indicated that an Iran-Oman deal defining new shipping routes is in its “final stages,” but emphasized that Hormuz would not reopen simply because a technical agreement has been reached. He also noted that there are currently no direct communications between Iran and the U.S., although intermediary messages continue.
A U.S. official informed Reuters that the blockade on Iranian ports would be lifted once commercial shipping is able to resume without impediments. This situation creates a sequencing dilemma: Washington wants to restore shipping before removing the blockade, while Iran seeks further U.S. concessions upfront.
The prospective agreement remains politically sensitive, as Reuters pointed out that one potential iteration could allow Tehran to oversee vessels entering the Gulf. U.S. officials have repeatedly opposed Iranian management of Hormuz and the implementation of mandatory fees, raising more unresolved concerns even if technical shipping routes are established.
Trump’s public nuclear policy remains unchanged
It is essential to approach the latest report with caution due to the disparity between Trump’s private comments and his public position. In a White House statement from July 28, Trump reiterated that Iran cannot obtain a nuclear weapon and stressed that U.S. forces could conduct strikes on further sites if diplomatic efforts do not succeed. The administration has not released any public statements indicating a deviation from that viewpoint.
Nonetheless, the Journal indicated that Trump has privately told aides that Tehran may have difficulty reviving its nuclear program during his presidency because of prior U.S. attacks that damaged vital facilities. He believes U.S. intelligence can identify any renewed efforts and that the threat of additional military action may deter such activities. These considerations do not equate to a negotiated nuclear resolution.
A White House official informed the Journal that the administration views its military objectives as achieved and is now focused on restoring energy flow through the Strait of Hormuz, while keeping military options ready should Iran target shipping. Consequently, reopening Hormuz serves as a near-term indicator for de-escalation, even as the nuclear issue remains unresolved.
Domestic political considerations add another layer of pressure. The Journal noted that Trump is prepared to endure the ongoing negotiation challenges as long as gasoline prices stay manageable. As of Saturday, the national average was reported at $4.02 per gallon, up from $3.16 a year ago, with midterm elections approaching in less than three months.
Hormuz situation keeps oil and crypto markets on edge
Markets are closely monitoring the potential for normalized shipping. As reported by Reuters, most Gulf stock markets closed quietly on Sunday as investors awaited clarity on the Oman-Iran agreement. Brent crude settled at $83.55 per barrel on Friday, gaining $1.06 or 1.3%.
On Sunday, Bitcoin was trading around $65,184. There is no clear indication that the Journal’s report alone caused this price movement, especially with U.S. markets closed. However, the ongoing conflict has consistently impacted crypto market sentiment through oil prices, inflation expectations, and broader geopolitical risks.
As highlighted by crypto.news on July 31, Bitcoin slipped below $64,000 as renewed hostilities in Iran pushed up oil prices and revived fears of energy disruptions. The cryptocurrency later rebounded above $64,000 as optimism for a Hormuz agreement increased. These developments illustrate why crypto traders remain vigilant regarding these negotiations, even when the triggers lie outside of digital asset markets.
The Strait previously accounted for about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments before the current disruptions, according to Reuters. A significant reopening could greatly affect energy prices, transport costs, and inflation expectations, though market reactions would hinge on specific terms and the feasibility of restored shipping.
Next steps in the Iran negotiations
The next verifiable step involves an Iran-Oman shipping agreement. Araqchi claims the deal is nearing completion, but no final text has emerged, and Tehran insists that it alone will not suffice to reopen the strait. Washington has stated its blockade will only be lifted once commercial shipping can proceed unabated.
The broader demands continue to be intricate. Iran is calling for compensation, sanctions relief, access to frozen assets, and security guarantees. Access to frozen Iranian funds has been a potential bargaining tool in previous negotiations, although no new agreements regarding this issue have been made public.
Furthermore, the U.S. has yet to publicly concede to Tehran’s recent requests, and the White House has not confirmed the Journal’s report suggesting that Trump would accept ending the conflict without a nuclear agreement. Iran also insists there are currently no direct discussions taking place between the U.S. and itself.
At this stage, reopening Hormuz appears to be the clearest route for Washington. Whether this will lead to a basis for resolving the conflict will depend on the outlined terms, actual shipping access, and whether both parties can negotiate concessions without triggering a new round of military tensions.
